Archive for March, 2005

The Big Day

Wednesday, March 30th, 2005

Tomorrow is Thursday. At 7:30 Bond Futures Time we get weekly jobless claims and personal income and consumption. At 9 are factory orders and Chicago NAPM. We also have the USDA March planting intentions prior to the grain and cotton market open. But the big kahuna for financials will be the employment report Friday. National […]

Dollar

Tuesday, March 22nd, 2005

Wow! That was something. The Euro actually rose on the news (June futures) up to 1.3247,48,49 then BAM! as Emeril might say. Down down down as people digested the statement, about 1.5 cents finally settling right around 1.31 where it stands right now. There looks to be virtually no trade right now. Maybe it will […]

Dollar/EUR

Monday, March 21st, 2005

I should add that the recent hullabaloo over the Stability Pact and the recent downturn in support for what must be a riidiculous constitution (judging by reports of its length, ergo long on detail and short on principle; how eurocratic) in Europe must be playing a role in the Euro’s decline. Also, asian central banks […]

Dollar/EUR

Sunday, March 20th, 2005

At this point there are roughly 39 hours until the feds march meeting adjourns and the fed releases its rate decision nand accompanying statement. June futures are down 51 ticks at 1.3287. Cash is about 1.3256. So it looks like it might consolidate in the 1.32-1.3250 range prior to the fed. Thhere is a sort […]

China

Thursday, March 17th, 2005

According to the US Treasury the Chinese hold just under $195 Billion or nearly 10% of the $1.96 Trillion of outstanding treasury securities (I thought the public debt was several times that amount). China also recently has: Vested the Chinese ‘troika’ of traditional authority in the President of China, Hu Jintao Passed an “Anti-Secession Law” […]

Dollar

Thursday, March 17th, 2005

Has apparently weathered the storm of the trade deficit numbers today. The euro failed to make a new high and isi now trading 1.3422 last basis June futures. It looks like iti is headeed lower. Att the least it means last nights buy isi over. the failure to take out the previous high is not […]

Dollar

Wednesday, March 16th, 2005

Is now going to decline relative to the euro. It will have a few days to run. It must pause for the Fed next tuesday. If the fed does 50, then it will stabilize, if 25, watch out. june futures 1.3346 last. cash 1.3315. i should mention that no one believes the fd will do […]

50bp?

Tuesday, March 15th, 2005

on march 10th Ii wrote a friend the following email: “i am wondering whether you think the fed might surprise the market to nip commodity inflation in the bud by doing 50bp on march 22. or is the fed complicit in letting the dollar fall in an attempt to force euroland (and maybe japan) to […]

Dollar

Sunday, March 13th, 2005

I have to go on the record unprepared. While everyone, and I mean everyone, including The Sage of Omaha and his Buddy Bill Gates are bearish the dollar, I have to say that I expect the dollar to bottom near here. By here I mean around 135, some 1 2/3 cents shy of the high […]

Oh Yeah, And Another Thing

Sunday, March 13th, 2005

Not only do democrats pine to roll back the recent Bush tax cuts, but I seem to recall at the time that they actually wanted to RAISE taxes. Yes these mental giants, intellectual titans like Ted Kennedy, thought that placing an additional burden on the country might help us fight our way out of the […]

Fiscal Policy

Friday, March 11th, 2005

I saw an interview on Fox with Senator Byrd. He demonstrated what for democrats seems to be a terminal inability to comprehend anything about economics. Decrying the budget deficit, he pins the blame squarely on the Bush tax cuts. Does anyone remember 2002? The corporate credit markets had basically seized up. We were staring down […]

Liquified Cow

Wednesday, March 9th, 2005

I laughed when I saw this today : Healthy McDonald’s. I should relate a story I was told recently by a co-worker. According to a friend of his wife’s (ok, ok, third party, I know), who worked at corporate. She was asked to do some proceess optimization. As background, she was sent to a McD […]

Social Security

Sunday, March 6th, 2005

How can one possibly object to the idea of Personal Savings Acccounts as part of Social Security overhaul? Well there is one reason, though it isnt the one you hear from democrats. The idea of an ownership society is a laudable one, visceral protestations of the democratic rank and file notwithstanding. But there is a […]


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