The Big Day

Tomorrow is Thursday. At 7:30 Bond Futures Time we get weekly jobless claims and personal income and consumption. At 9 are factory orders and Chicago NAPM. We also have the USDA March planting intentions prior to the grain and cotton market open. But the big kahuna for financials will be the employment report Friday. National NAPM, or ISM at this point will also be pretty big if it deviates from real expectations.

Well since I suggested the EUR was at a top on Sunday the 13th, it has lost, in almost straightline fashion, about 6 cents at the low. It currently stands at 1.2950 basis June futures. Subtract 25 or 30 ticks to get cash. The last meaningful retracement was on the 16th. I should mention that the shenanigans surrounding the Stability and Growth Pact as well as sentiment turning against ratification of the Constitution have acted at least as sort of a trigger for the reversal of fortune for the EUR. What will happen? I do not know. The low in cash at 1.2853 is 1 cent above the 200 day moving average att 1.2753 and the trendline I have which is at 1.2785. If I had to guess, I would say that employment will be relatively strong, and the EUR will be falling, but I would not be surprised to see it rise to 1.32 first either.

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