Dollar/EUR

The cash EUR is now nearly at the trend line I have from early 2002 which now comes in right around 1.28 even. Cash is right now at 1.2823. The 200 day moving average is at 1.2765. the50% retracement from the pre-breakout, pre-election low last august is right around 1.2819. The low for the year in February is 1.2729. So if EUR bulls are going to make a stand, there are alot of support ponts in the current area south about 1 cent. If I had to guess, I would say further dollar gains from here will be hard won. Furthermore, the dollar index, approaching 85, is near its 200 day moving average as well as the February highs. Finally, I think that market sentiment will likely tire of dollar bullishness around now. So my guess is the dollar is near a near-term apex.

Note that the time of this post is an hour off. Will have to fix that on the server as I have time. Fixed 04/07 10:25pm

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