Recent Dollar Musings

Here is a short chain of thoughts I shared with my brother just prior to the collapse of the dollar.

Subject:
From: tom *a@t* bangpath.com
Date: Sat, Apr 15, 2006 12:47 pm
To: David Bergerson

i will have to look at the charts again, but what i saw was an end to dollar strength.

correct

i would be short metals sometime soon.

right at the time, but wrong subsequently

short sugar. long eurodollars (i should have got in thursday). energy will probably continue strong due to supply concerns, notably iran, nigeria and venezuela. it is precisely this energy problem, along with rising rates that will change the picture. everyone was predicting a slowdown this spring into summer. well so the economy confounds with continued strength. but the administration is absolutely moribund, and with the likelihood rising of a protectionist, tax raising democratic congress becoming a reality this fall and that fact starting to sink into the markets consciousness, things will change quickly. and this will be bad for markets. falling dollar with rising rates as foreigners dump treasuries i suppose. the real question is where will all that money go? gold maybe? more later

tcb

Quoting “Bergerson, David”

I’m curious what you foresee because the Iran thing means more high oil prices. Until the price of oil impacts the world economies you can expect the metal shortages to continue. I am not sure what tide you are sensing, but look forward to hearing more of your thoughts.

Which was a follow-on to this earlier missive

—–Original Message—–
From: tom *@* bangpath.com [mailto:tom *@* bangpath.com]
Sent: Thursday, April 13, 2006 11:16 AM
To: Bergerson, David
Subject:
in retrospect things are easy. the fed SAID it was going to reflate. and they did. combined with the rise of China and India, we have been in what jim rogers and others have called a commodity super cycle.

look at sugar, oj, coffee, crb index (this is the clearest) etc, etc. we were actually long oj the very day it took off on a multiyear run. i was trying to
pick a spot in sugar to get long (i was long in my own ira account but got
stopped out because i was a wee bit early and then i wasnt trading anymore). and copper and silver.

all that said, there is something now in the offing it occurred to me last night. there is a sea change coming. soon. if i had to guess i would say it revolves around the may fed meeting and the april 28 iaea report due on iran. and there will undoubtedly be other stimuli that turn the tide. the trick will be to ascertain how it will affect different markets at different times. i just had a glimpse of it last night. first time my gut has told me much in quite awhile.

tcb

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