CRB Weekly as of 9 Novembre

As you can see from the chart of the CRB, commodity prices did in fact head higher in the short to intermediate term since we last looked at it here on September 28th (never mind that the CRB dropped 10 points starting the day after we called for them to go higher in the short term). They are of course headed lower right now. How durable is that top? Depends on the dollar. If the dollar stabilizes, then that top is durable. If it doesn’t, then it isn’t. I have to believe the EUR/USD pair is going to test 1.50 in earnest, so it may come under assault. But the view on the dollar is so unanimous, there may be a bottom in the dollar near here. Also, if we have a recession in consumer spending, and if China slows down, that will put downward pressure on the CRB. Too early to call a top, but the probabilities are rising that the top is in for this cycle.

CRB 11.09.2007 Weekly

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