Stocks Go Up. And Then They Come Down.

It is interesting to hear all the breathless talk about a bottom being put in, and now it is time to get long stocks again.  That the Bear Stearns blowout (which was somewhat forced) is that singular event that marks the turning point.  It marked “a” turning point to be sure.  But not “the” turning point I think.  If it did, this would be the shortest bear market in a long time.  The last one in 2000-2002 lasted over 2 and a half years.  This one could be said to have lasted for about 5 months so far.  While that is possible, it is unlikely.  There must be more to come.  I still believe that we will see the S&P 500 down around 1150 at least before we move up for good.  The S&P 500 here is about 1355.

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