Trade Chatter

I hate to gloat, but gloat I shall.  Here is what I wrote Tuesday afternoon in my daily chatter with the friendly ‘quants’ with whom I chat in Greenwich:

[4/22/2008 3:36:08 PM] t0mmy berg says: btw,  i believe there is a pretty high probability (like 70%) that the high in the eur/us rate was either today or will be in the next 2 weeks.
[4/22/2008 3:36:45 PM] t0mmy berg says: actually before the end of next week

At the time I wrote that, the EUR/USD rate was 1.5990 or so, a quarter cent below its high made earlier in the day.  The EUR is two days later in freefall as those who got long in the last week or two in the assault on 1.60 dump their positions.  At the present time, the EUR/USD rate is 1.5655, about 3.5 cents below the high.

Now, I believe this is the turning point.  And if it is, then commodities prices will fall.  Oil prices will fall.  Grain prices will fall.  Metals prices will fall.  And they will fall by something like 50% top to bottom, however long that takes.

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