2008 Replay? Look at the Brazilian Real

Lots of talk lately about whether we are replaying 2008 in the real economy and in a host of markets.  The unfolding chart of the Real is starting to look very similar to 2008.  Will commodities collapse again and the dollar rally hard?  Hard to believe that things will replay but we are staring at a new financial crisis and commodities have rallied to massive new heights.  Look at the Real below and decide for yourself.  In both years it makes a new low right around 1.55 Reals to the Dollar (lower means a stronger Real as it takes fewer Reals to buy one US Dollar).  Then in late July, it abruptly changes course and falls to the mid 160s before rallying abit in the latter half of August.  Then in September it really falls out of bed and collapses to about 195 before rallying back in the latter part of September to just below 180.  In October 2008 it then really collapses for the rest of the year into the 250 and up area.  So far it has started back up (remember up is down).  Will October 2011 take it into the mid 200s again?  I am not sure what the issues were in 2008 other than the worldwide financial crisis.  In 2011 Brazil has recently lowered rates a touch to stop money from flooding into the country.  They also have picked a trade fight with China, their largest trading partner, perhaps not a wise idea.  The fourth quarter will be instructive but the similarities are uncanny so far.

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