Archive for the 'Markets' Category

S&P 500. 1350 Anyone? Anyone?

Thursday, November 15th, 2007

Well would you look at that. The Spoo came up to 1492 yesterday (1496.75 was the high print on the e-mini), tried to find equilibrium around 1490 and then took a late day dive (reeejected). Continued to deteriorate today. The short term trend is down. Asia is taking it on the chin tonight. Data tomorrow […]

CRB Weekly as of 9 Novembre

Monday, November 12th, 2007

As you can see from the chart of the CRB, commodity prices did in fact head higher in the short to intermediate term since we last looked at it here on September 28th (never mind that the CRB dropped 10 points starting the day after we called for them to go higher in the short […]


Monday, November 12th, 2007

I have to believe that if the administration has any sense, they will instruct or “allow” treasury to organize the undertaking of an exercise (responsibility obfuscated enough there?) to punish speculators who are selling the dollar imminently. There have started to be some musings about this in the press. The selling point for the cowboy […]

Equities This Hour

Sunday, November 11th, 2007

Markets rarely go straight down. Though the Nikkei is right now opening the week down 500, the Shanghai Index is down 200 and the Hang Seng down almost 1200 points, the S&P futures are down only about 6 points. If I had to guess, I would say that in the absence of additional negative specific […]

Major Turning Point

Monday, November 5th, 2007

I do believe we are witnessing a major turning point in world equities markets with commodities soon to follow. Below is the chart of the Hang Seng index. That looks like an island reversal, confirmed by last nights session in Hong Kong where the Hang Seng was down a massive 5%, over 1500 points. At […]

If it has to do with China, It Must Be Good.

Sunday, October 28th, 2007

Hang Seng. Hong Kong. Is that near China? The numbers boggle the Mind! The Hang Seng Index opened tonight up 1,131.73 points or 3.8% above the previous close. That is a 423.62 point gap above the previous high (1.4%).  At its high, the Hang Seng has been up so far tonight by 1,636.92, or nearly […]

CRB Revisited

Friday, September 28th, 2007

I thought it a good time to throw the chart of the CRB out there again. It has been a little over a week since the Fed decided to trash the dollar by doing a “surprise” 50 bips cut in the targeted fed funds rate. The predictable result is a surge to the upside in […]

Follow Up on Turning Point

Wednesday, February 28th, 2007

Well, that was interesting. When I was writing at 4:30 AM yesterday, I was not aware that Shanghai had dropped nearly 9%. I do recall however what made me place a high probability on the idea that US Equity markets were in the temporal proximity of a top in prices. I think it was on […]

Turning Point?

Tuesday, February 27th, 2007

Despite rather than because of former Fed Chairman Greenspan’s declaration yesterday about recession on the horizon, I think the odds that we have just passed or will soon pass the peak in stock markets here in the US is high. I do not have the same luxury of time I used to have so it […]

CRB Index for 13 January 2007. Weekly.

Saturday, January 13th, 2007

I have put a vertical bar here to show what has happened since I last posted this image. The index retraced about 40% of the difference between its May high and its October low, which happens to also be roughly the difference between the 38.2% and 23.6% retracement of the entire reflationary move up from […]

CRB Index – 27 October 2006. Weekly.

Saturday, October 28th, 2006

A weekly chart of the cash CRB (Commodity Research Bureau) Index. I will follow this up later but it is an amazing view of what has been going on. I looked into how to get short commodities using an index in April, a little early, but there is no product traded with any meaningful volume […]

Recent Dollar Musings

Friday, May 5th, 2006

Here is a short chain of thoughts I shared with my brother just prior to the collapse of the dollar. Subject: From: tom *a@t* Date: Sat, Apr 15, 2006 12:47 pm To: David Bergerson i will have to look at the charts again, but what i saw was an end to dollar strength. correct […]

Not much go

Thursday, April 14th, 2005

Not much of a bounce in the EUR. I guess someone either wants out or to get short. It is hard to assess the market reaction to the upcoming EU constitution vote. But given that the dollar is strong despite bad data I think the market is rendering its decision. However, if Chirac and company […]

One More Go, At least

Monday, April 11th, 2005

With the EUR bouncing off the 3 year trend line, it is too early to make any decision one way or the other on reflation trades. What is strange is that the Canadian is still falling while Aussie and Kiwi dollars recover. The Dollar Index has predictably shied away from its February high short of […]

End of Reflation Trades?

Thursday, April 7th, 2005

With the Fed seemingly on track to remove accomodative stimulus, it is interesting to see that crude and products are down sharply today. EUR has also dropped smartly in the last hour. It is 1:02pm Central Daylight Time (despite what the post timer says which I will fix when I get a chance). As recently […]

Market Day

Tuesday, April 5th, 2005

The EUR did bounce. This should be an interesting week in the Energy complex. With one Papa heading to the afterlife one supposes, the financial Papa gave warm fuzzy feelings in remarks today at an energy confereence. I would expect heating oil to fall with warm weather finally arriving. But the timing is a question. […]


Tuesday, April 5th, 2005

The cash EUR is now nearly at the trend line I have from early 2002 which now comes in right around 1.28 even. Cash is right now at 1.2823. The 200 day moving average is at 1.2765. the50% retracement from the pre-breakout, pre-election low last august is right around 1.2819. The low for the year […]

The Big Day

Wednesday, March 30th, 2005

Tomorrow is Thursday. At 7:30 Bond Futures Time we get weekly jobless claims and personal income and consumption. At 9 are factory orders and Chicago NAPM. We also have the USDA March planting intentions prior to the grain and cotton market open. But the big kahuna for financials will be the employment report Friday. National […]


Tuesday, March 22nd, 2005

Wow! That was something. The Euro actually rose on the news (June futures) up to 1.3247,48,49 then BAM! as Emeril might say. Down down down as people digested the statement, about 1.5 cents finally settling right around 1.31 where it stands right now. There looks to be virtually no trade right now. Maybe it will […]


Monday, March 21st, 2005

I should add that the recent hullabaloo over the Stability Pact and the recent downturn in support for what must be a riidiculous constitution (judging by reports of its length, ergo long on detail and short on principle; how eurocratic) in Europe must be playing a role in the Euro’s decline. Also, asian central banks […]